The inventory market’s return can be minus 3.3% a 12 months over the subsequent decade, says this ‘single biggest predictor’ – MarketWatch

This month we’ve obtained each good and dangerous information from the “single biggest predictor of future inventory market returns.”

I’m referring to the indicator, first proposed by the Philosophical Economics weblog in 2013, primarily based on the common family’s portfolio allocation to equities. It’s a contrarian indicator, with increased fairness allocations related to decrease subsequent market returns, and vice versa.

The…

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